Pay and Performance
Enter our prediction competition ahead of the Women’s & Men’s Varsity football matches at the Cledara Abbey Stadium on Friday 21 March 2025
Make 3 predictions on the Women’s and Men’s Varsity matches
Win 10star merch if your predictions are correct – or the closest of all entries
Enter here before KO at 16:00, Fri 21 Mar – full T&Cs are on this page
The 10star Summer Intern Program is designed to introduce undergraduate and graduate students to how we apply data science and quantitative modelling within the sports betting industry.
Through this program, interns will have the opportunity to work on real projects, collaborate with experienced professionals, and gain insights into the workings of a constantly evolving and fast paced industry.
Timeframe
- June - September 2025
Location
- Hybrid working, with regular onsite sessions at our offices in Camden, London
Eligibility
- Strong academic performance in a Mathematical discipline
- Experience using a coding language such as R, Python, C#, VBA
- Ability to work independently and in a team environment
- Interested in sports and thinking about them in an analytical way
Application Process (now closed)
- Interested candidates should submit their resume and a cover letter outlining their interest in the internship program to careers@10star.com with the subject line "Summer Intern Program Application"
- Closing date for applications 30 April 2025
- Shortlisted candidates will be contacted for interviews
Benefits
- Professional Development
Work closely with experienced professionals and participate in learning sessions tailored to enhance your skills - Networking Opportunities
Connect with professionals across various departments and build relationships that could benefit your career in the future - Hands-on Experience
Engage in meaningful projects and tasks that contribute to the company's goals - Remuneration
Competitive salary offered for the duration of the internship - Flexibility
Work around your term dates, study requirements and holidays
You get what you pay for, more or less
The last six teams promoted from the Championship were relegated after one season in the Premier League. Will that become nine out of nine? Or will it be eight, seven, even six?
We are going to answer in a way you will not be used to hearing. We will consider what club owners can reasonably expect, why they sometimes receive better or worse – and how sportsbooks can trade confidently when that happens.
So what are the prospects this season for Burnley, Leeds and Sunderland in the Premier League? And how about other promoted teams such as high-profile Birmingham and Wrexham in the Championship?
Has the gap between Championship and Premier League widened?
There is a lot of talk that it has. Here are the total points won by the three promoted teams in each season since the Premier League was reduced to its present size. Before the last two seasons there was a slight downward trend, but that is all.
Points won by promoted teams in the Premier League
So how can we explain changes in the performance of promoted clubs?
We will do it by comparing points won with wages paid. This graph covers the 24 seasons up to 2023-24. Accounts for 2024-25 will be published in the coming months. We express the combined wage bills of the three promoted clubs as a percentage of the season’s Premier League total. In this way we control for inflation. Expressed in pounds Premier League wage bills double every ten seasons.
Points and payrolls of promoted clubs in the Premier League
You can see that for promoted clubs pay and performance moved mostly in tandem. One danced in step with the other.
Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest in 2022-23 had the highest combined wage bill of promoted clubs for more than 20 seasons. None of them were relegated. Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United in 2023-24 had the lowest combined wage bill of promoted clubs for more than 20 seasons. All of them were relegated.
Burnley’s chief finance officer Sasha Ryazantsev said in a recent interview with BBC Sport: “Player wages is the best predictor of on-the-pitch performance in the Premier League.” In the 24 seasons to 2023-24: nine of the ten promoted teams with the lowest payrolls went down, nine of the ten promoted teams with the highest payrolls stayed up.
What were reasonable expectations for Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United?
Of the total Premier League wage bill in 2023-24, Luton paid 1.4 per cent, Sheffield United 1.6 per cent and Burnley 2.3 per cent. Among the payrolls of the 72 most recently promoted teams, Luton’s was lowest, Sheffield United’s fourth lowest and Burnley’s 24th lowest. All three ranked in the bottom third.
According to our calculations, reasonable expectations for the owners would have been 27 points for Luton, 29 for Sheffield United and 36 for Burnley. Luton got 26 points. They achieved what should have been asked of them, as near as makes no difference. Burnley got 24 points and Sheffield United 16. Both under-achieved – but they could have gone down even if they had not.
How about Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton?
We drew upon our experience to estimate the payrolls in 2024-25 of Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton. If our estimates are correct, reasonable expectations for the owners would have been 30 points for Ipswich, 41 for Southampton and 43 for Leicester.
Leicester got 25 points, Ipswich 22 and Southampton 12. By differing amounts, they all under-achieved. Ipswich probably would have gone down anyway. Southampton and Leicester should not. We will talk more about over- and under-performers later.
What is the relationship between pay and performance for all teams in the Premier League?
Nine times in 24 seasons the champions were the club with the highest payroll, another nine times they were the club with the second highest payroll, five times they were the club with the third highest payroll… and once they were the club with the 15th highest payroll. No prize for guessing that the outliers were Leicester, who flummoxed everyone in 2015-16.
On this graph we show the average number of points won with wage bills of varying sizes. The pink line is our definition of the underlying relationship.
Pay and average points in the Premier League 2000-01 to 2023-24
We used our knowledge of how payrolls have changed season by season to predict payrolls in2025-26 for all clubs who will be in the Premier League, and we used those to estimate how many points owners should reasonably anticipate. This is what we reckon they are paying for.
Premier League 2025-26, expected points from projected payrolls
Remuneration and relegation in the Premier League 2000-01 to 2023-24
How might promoted teams fare in the Championship?
Birmingham are part-owned by former NFL star Tom Brady. Wrexham are co-owned by Hollywood actors Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds.
Three seasons ago Wrexham won the National League, two seasons ago they were runners-up in League Two and last season they were runners-up in League One. Birmingham were champions. Charlton were promoted through the playoffs.
Wrexham say that their revenue a couple of seasons ago was a record for League Two. Their payroll was higher than that of Portsmouth, who were champions of League One.
We investigated how the payrolls of Wrexham, Birmingham and Charlton have changed over the seasons, and how the payrolls of other clubs changed when they moved between divisions. Our estimates of what the owners will be paying for this season in the Championship are 63 points for Birmingham, 59 for Wrexham and 55for Charlton. If they delivered those totals, Birmingham would finish about 11th, Wrexham 14th and Charlton 17th in a division of 24.
Why do some clubs over- or under-perform in the Premier League?
On an earlier graph we showed the average number of points won with wage bills of different sizes. Around an average naturally there will be variation. Some will do better, others worse. On this graph we show the variation. There are 480 data points – one for each of 20 clubs in all of 24 seasons. Again there is a pink line for what we calculate to be reasonable expectations.
Pay and points in the Premier League 2000-01 to 2023-24
Results can diverge from reasonable expectations because of good or bad luck with the roll of the ball. It can also happen because players are paid less or more than they are worth, which can happen because of good or bad luck or good or bad judgement.
When there is an over-performance, recruiters claim credit. When there is an under-performance, they try to deflect the blame. More often than not, the best explanation for any disparity is luck. It is unusual for a club to persistently over- or under-achieve. But sometimes there is skill.
Successful clubs are those with a high payroll who surpass even exalted expectations. Manchester City and Liverpool did in most recent seasons. Other clubs with a high payroll under-performed. For example, Manchester United and Chelsea. Lower down the budget scale, Tottenham over-achieved for ten seasons up to 2018-19 and Everton for ten seasons up to 2013-14. Brighton and Brentford over-performed in a few recent seasons.
Some Premier League over-performers
Some highly paid Premier League over- and under-performers
How can all of this help sportsbooks?
Payrolls provide only one insight into possible performances. There are many others and each yields some knowledge. For sportsbooks, increased knowledge leads to increased confidence in pricing, so they should weigh them all.
If operators outsource their pricing to a 3rd party supplier, they need to have comfort that these providers can create strong prices. Here we are concentrating on wages and wins because it is one of the lesser-known associations (and currently overlooked), but it is also among the more important.
A sportsbook needs to know for every club in each competition what are reasonable expectations, why in recent times results might have differed, and whether differences are likely to last. To this level of expertise they should add another: the expertise of some of their customers. They need to be able to distinguish between sharp money and blunt. 10star’s proprietary prices, augmented with automated risk management systems and unique customer smartness algorithms allow our partners to trade with confidence – from the Egyptian Premier League to the English Premier League.
Published 08 August 2025
For all enquiries contact info@10star.com
