Circumnavigating the Club World Cup

The enlarged 32-team Club World Cup is intended to become a four-yearly tournament. The first takes place in 12 venues across 11 US cities between 15 June and 13 July. Will it be a shoo-in for European clubs, or will a team from another confederation surprise? At 10star, we’ve looked at the data.

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History of the tournament

The first Club World Cup was held 25 years ago in Brazil. There were two teams from Brazil and both reached the final, with South American champions Vasco da Gama losing in a penalty shootout to Brazilian champions Corinthians, who were participating as guests. Conversely, the Club World Cups staged in Asia and Africa from 2005 to 2024 were dominated by Europe. It won 17 out of 20 – including all of the last 12. Unlike this year’s expanded format, those competitions only involved the champions of governing body FIFA’s six regional confederations, and usually a guest side from the host country as well. FIFA’s confederations, and their average finishing positions in previous Club World Cups are shown below.

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‍Club World Cup 2005 to 2024, Average Finishing Position

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The guests achieved an average finishing position of 4.6, slightly better than the champions of Africa. Altogether there were 17 guests, whose performances ranged from three as runners-up to two in seventh and last place.

Europe v South America

Arguably the dominant backdrop to any international tournament is the respective strengths of teams from the footballing superpowers. The champions of Europe and South America have met in a competitive game in nearly all of the last 65 years – first in a competition just for them called the Intercontinental Cup, then at the Club World Cup. During this time, power has shifted, as these graphics show.

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Comparison between the decades
_{90 minute results (ie. excluding extra time and penalty shootouts)}

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The change was not sudden as the 80s giving way to the 90s but a more gradual process coinciding with an evolution in the composition of the top European teams. Rather than relying on “homegrown” talent they became teams with players from many countries, then teams with players from several continents.

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Pele, widely regarded as one of the best players of all time, scored in the Intercontinental Cup for Santos – five times over two legs in 1962 against Benfica, twice in a single game in 1963 against Milan. Today a player of his stature at the peak of his powers would not be playing for Santos in Brazil. They would be playing for one of the top clubs in Europe.

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The graph below includes all competitive games between the champions of Europe and South America. It shows the percentage of players in the starting XI eligible to play international football for the country in which their club was based. For South America, it has dropped slightly. For Europe it dropped dramatically in the 1980s and beyond.

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% of starters eligible for country of their club

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Ranking the Competition

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How do the teams at this renewal of the Cub World Cup compare with other clubs from their own confederations, and against each other?

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CONMEBOL (South America)

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South America will have six teams at the much-expanded 2025 Club World Cup – Botafogo, Flamengo, Fluminese and Palmeiras from Brazil, Boca Juniors and River Plate from Argentina. The graphic below shows the results of games between teams from those countries in the Copa Libertadores – the South American club championship – over 20 seasons.  

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Brazil v Argentina, Copa Libertadores
_{90 minute results (ie. excluding extra time and penalty shootouts)
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CONCACAF (North and Central America and the Caribbean)

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When Europeans hear about football in North America it is nearly always the MLS in the United States. However, teams from the US have won the Champions Cup – CONCACAF’s club championship – just three times – whereas teams from Mexico have won it 40 times – including 19 of the last 20.

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CONCACAF has four places at the 2025 Club World Cup, allocated to Monterrey and Pachuca from Mexico, Los Angeles FC and Seattle Sounders from the US. In addition, US club Inter Miami – complete with Lionel Messi – will participate as guests.

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Here are the results of games between teams from Mexico and the United States in Champions Cup games over the last 20 seasons.

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Mexico v United States, CONCACAF Champions Cup
_{90 minute results (ie. excluding extra time and penalty shootouts)}

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The superior ability of Mexican teams, it should be added, was wiped out by ground disadvantage when they played away in the United States. The 2025 Club World Cup will be staged in the United States and – in the group stage at least – some of the US teams have the additional benefit of home city or home ground advantage. Taking these adjustments into account leads to a much more level playing field according to the 10star rankings.

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AFC (Asia), CAF (Africa) and Oceania

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Who are the best teams in Asia? The group phase of the Asian Champions League is organised on a regional basis – into what Europeans would call broadly the Middle East and Far East. Only in the knockout phase do they play each other. Japan and South Korea have been the strongest countries in the Far East, Saudi Arabia in the Middle East.

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Asia will have four teams at the 2025 Club World Cup – Urawa Red Diamonds from Japan, Ulsan from South Korea, Al Hilal from Saudi Arabia and Al Ain from the United Arab Emirates. Teams from the Far East have usually got the better in knockout ties of teams from the Middle East, but that could change if investment in football continues to rise in the Middle East. Already Al Hilal have several players who competed in top European leagues: centre back Kalidou Koulibaly, full backs Joao Cancelo and Renan Lodi, midfielder Ruben Neves and forward Aleksandar Mitrovic.

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Africa will be represented at the 2025 Club World Cup by Al Ahly of Egypt, Esperance of Tunisia, Wydad of Morocco and Mamelodi Sundowns of South Africa. The story of African club football over the past 60 years has been the rise of North Africa and the corresponding decline of West and Central Africa. Those are the two powerhouses of African international football. In club football one has eclipsed the other. Why? It would be hard to argue that there has been a decline in the ability of players from West and Central Africa relative to players from North Africa.

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The next graph shows the number of Champions League winners from North Africa and West/Central Africa in each of the last seven decades. It paints its own picture.  
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African Champions League winners

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Oceania’s sole representative in the United States will be Auckland City from New Zealand, who are our lowest ranked team in the tournament.

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UEFA (Europe)

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Europe, by contrast, sends the largest and strongest contingent of 12 entrants: Chelsea and Manchester City from England, Real and Atletico Madrid from Spain, Bayern Munich and Dortmund from Germany, Inter and Juventus from Italy, PSG from France, Benfica and Porto from Portugal, Salzburg from Austria. How do top teams from different European countries compare? Here are Champions League results from the last 20 seasons.

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European Champions League results by country 2005/06 - 2024/25
_{90 minute results (ie. excluding extra time and penalty shootouts)}

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Overall Club World Cup rankings

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In terms of our ratings, the dominance of Europe is shown by 11 of their 12 entrants being rated the strongest in the competition, with only Salzburg failing to make it a clean sweep. Perhaps unsurprisingly, teams from South America fill the next 5 slots, as shown below.
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The correlation of spending power to expected performances on the pitch goes someway to explaining the relatively lofty position of Al Hilal. As touched on above, guests in the Club World Cup have been known to overperform and Inter Miami – complete with some added home city advantage – may be the popular choice to continue the trend.  

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Alongside the Women’s Euros, the Club World Cup is the summer football highlight for sportsbooks. However, despite its commercial importance, pricing and trading the tournament is far from straightforward. Small data samples lead to a lack of pricing confidence and a weak market. Rating teams from different federations against each other requires expertise – which means that sportsbooks can easily find themselves exposed if they’re using a supply chain that just copies the market to generate their prices.

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Unlike other suppliers, 10star has the proprietary capability to price these type of match-ups, using a combination of historic data, pricing strength and modelling expertise. Once prices are live, our automated risk management systems ensure partner risk is managed in accordance with their individual risk profiles, and our customer sharpness algorithms react in real time to sharp information that hits their book. As a result, our partners can trade with confidence, even if it is a market where the underlying pricing is weak and the data samples are small.

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Who will win? On the pitch it could well be a gimme for Europe, but for sportsbooks the winners will be the brands with the confidence to stand their prices and manage risk appropriately. The Club World Cup is a good example of where even the world’s most valuable sport still needs more than just a market to copy from.

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