Australian Open Preview

And just like that, the 2026 tennis season is already in full swing.

‍
Following two weeks of tournament practice, the Australian Open will kick off the Grand Slam calendar as the first major liquidity and pricing event of the year. With fast hard courts, extreme weather conditions, and early-season uncertainty to consider, pricing the Australian Open demands a deep understanding of player profiles, match-up dynamics, and key variance factors.

Ahead of the main event, we asked our tennis trading team to share their predictions and market expectations across both the Men’s and Women’s draws. These covered outright winners, dark horses, early exits, and performance-based angles such as aces and double faults. What follows is a summary of the notable themes and opinions from our traders.

‍
‍
Outright Market View (Men & Women)

‍
‍Unsurprisingly, the outright market view for the Men’s field is highly concentrated. Despite having yet to truly impose himself at the Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz is still seen as the closest challenger to defending champion Jannik Sinner. Several traders noted this could be one of the weakest supporting fields behind the top two in recent years, with recurring concerns around the fitness and durability of the chasing pack.

That sentiment is perhaps reflected in the fact that Sinner and Alcaraz’s only official warm-up ahead of the tournament will be an exhibition match against each other in South Korea.

Sinner is the more popular outright selection among our traders, with 75% backing him to complete a three-peat in Melbourne.
‍
‍

‍

No other player received an outright vote, underlining the clear two-tier structure at the top of the market. However, traders remain conscious that Australian Open conditions - particularly heat and scheduling - can still introduce meaningful volatility.

From a punting perspective, the Women’s Australian Open field is widely viewed as more open and exciting. Despite the market being anchored by the top seeds, there is a wider group of players capable of making a deep run.

That view is reinforced by our traders, with 75% predicting a first-time champion in 2026.

Amanda Anisimova falls into that category, and the American was a popular selection following a strong 2025 season, which included two Grand Slam final appearances. Mirra Andreeva was also noted as a viable first-time winner, being a player who has already produced standout results against top-level opposition and whose game suits fast hard courts.

Overall, however, the traders’ opinions broadly mirrored the market, with Sabalenka and Swiatek proving to be the most popular outright selections.

‍
‍
Value Picks & Dark Horses to Watch‍

Such is the recent Grand Slam dominance of Alcaraz and Sinner that even 10-time Australian Open champion Novak Djokovic is being viewed as “a dark horse by default” by some of our traders. The main concern around Djokovic is his fitness and durability at the age of 38 – a question mark that can be applied to multiple players in the field.

Grigor Dimitrov is certainly one of those players. On multiple occasions, the Bulgarian has shown he can compete with the elite, and if he can keep himself fit, the traders see some value in his outright price. It’s a big if, though.

Alongside these more established names, a younger and less familiar crop of contenders earned a mention from the trading team. Learner Tien has history at this tournament, having reached the fourth-round last year, and enters 2026 as the reigning Next Gen champion. Big hitters Jerry Shang and Joao Fonseca were also highlighted as two young players capable of exceeding expectations.

Other notable names on the radar included Felix Auger-Aliassime, whose strong finish to the 2025 hard-court season was viewed as being overlooked by the market, whilst home favourite Alex De Minaur was cited as having the physical profile to reach the latter stages.

Finally, several big servers, including Alexander Bublik, Gabriel Diallo, and United Cup-winning Hubert Hurkacz, were noted as potential banana-skin ties for the favourites.
‍
‍

‍
‍
With a more open field, identifying dark horses for the Women’s Australian Open title allowed our traders to be more selective.

Belinda Bencic was named the WTA Comeback Player in 2025 and has been backed to carry that momentum into the new season. Winning all five of her singles matches at the United Cup represents a strong early signal. Eva Lys has also drawn attention following her early-season performances, with confidence and momentum building ahead of the tournament.

Karolína Muchová is another experienced campaigner with an outside chance in Melbourne, given her elite variety and tactical depth, though durability remains the principal risk. Naomi Osaka, a former Australian Open champion, was mentioned as a potential value play, with a sense that current market pricing may be underestimating her ceiling.

Several next-gen players were also highlighted as having the maturity and capability to reach at least the second week of a Slam. Tereza Valentová has emerged as one of the most promising profiles, while Maya Joint was noted for her strong progression through 2025. Iva Jovic and Victoria Mboko were also named as players to monitor closely, with Mboko’s recent experience of winning titles providing an important foundation.‍

‍
Early Exit Risk, Conditions & Seed Volatility‍

Early round disruption is firmly on the agenda again in 2026. Last year saw eight ATP seeds and five WTA seeds eliminated in the first round, underlining how quickly early-season uncertainty and Australian Open conditions can translate into market volatility.
‍
‍

‍
‍
Expectations differ across the two draws. The Men’s market points towards more contained early disruption, with 69% of traders anticipating only 1-5 seeded exits in Round 1. By contrast, the Women’s draw is viewed as significantly more volatile, with 50% of traders expecting 6-10 seeded players to fall at the first hurdle.

With the draw not yet confirmed at the time of writing, traders were cautious about naming specific early exits. Instead, focus has been placed on players carrying elevated early-round downside risk, driven by performance tendencies in demanding Melbourne conditions and recent form. Among the seeded names attracting the most caution were Jelena Ostapenko and Clara Tauson on the Women’s side, along with Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Men’s draw.

‍
‍Player Props:Aces and Double Faults‍

Player props remain a popular angle across the industry, and with 10star’s coverage now including these markets, the traders were asked to highlight players who naturally lend themselves to overs on aces and double faults in Australian Open conditions.

Giovanni Mpetshi-Perricard featured frequently across both categories, reflecting his willingness to go big on both first and second serves. On the Women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina emerged as the most common selections for aces, given their power-based serving profiles.

When it comes to double faults, Coco Gauff and Denis Shapovalov rank highest statistically, a trend that was echoed by trader sentiment. Other names mentioned, including Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina and Alexander Zverev, were viewed as more situational risks, with double faults more likely to occur around crucial moments rather than consistently throughout matches.

‍

Final Thoughts‍

The Australian Open remains one of the most complex tournaments to price, combining early-season uncertainty with demanding conditions and high liquidity. However, 10star’s unique ability to combine elite tennis trading expertise with smart automation, ensures our partners can trade the first major of the year with total confidence.

‍

^{Published 16 January 2026}

^{For all enquiries contact info@10star.com}